Building Blocks: 2/3 Rule
I’ve long subscribed to the idea that understanding what it takes to win, helps you set realistic benchmarks to build your team around. The ⅔ rule is my basic philosophy to reach that benchmark. The rule, in theory, is simple, I build a team that should win ⅔ of the games each week, then I add a small cushion to make up for outliers.
Now, this idea can be as simple or as complex as you’d like to make it. I’ve had years where I’ve simply eyeballed the scores from a previous year to find an approximate number, and I’ve had years where I’ve built extensive spreadsheets to determine the exact number I felt I needed to reach.
My suggestion to you is to apply as much effort as you’re comfortable with, but I can say with wholeheartedness, that I cannot remember the last time I wasn’t in the playoffs in a fantasy league, and I’ve haven’t missed playoffs in the past 6 years that I’ve taken this approach.
Let’s get down to brass tacks. Eyeballing the scoring is self-explanatory, so I won’t get into that, but let’s take a look at applying a spreadsheet. Below is an image of the scores from one of my league last year that I used to determine my benchmark for the current season.
In figure 1.1 you can see a snippet of a table I use to track the scores each week, arranged from lowest to highest. Everything above the 9th row all the scores I want to beat, so to determine the 2/3 number I figure out the average all year by that row. By the end of the year, I’ve calculated an average number to be 169.16, then I add my personal cushion for outliers, which is usually 5 points, and that gives me a benchmark of 174.16 for the season.
Once I have a benchmark I can check my roster and determine their projections for the upcoming season to see how many points I’ll need each week to reach my goal. Personally, I set my projections based on historical performance and typically any trusted website, but I try to keep the scores as modest as I can and typically just round them off.
Based on the above figure, my assumption is that I need 24.16 points per game from a QB and a Defensive Flex to meet my weekly target. This exercise will help me evaluate who my targets will be in free agency and how to put a dollar value on them ahead of the auction.
Remember, you’re trying to establish a benchmark, and as a result, asses the value of players that you’ll need to get you there. You should be able to determine if someone is overpriced or underpriced based on your model rather than what everyone else is willing or able to pay, and that will give you a distinctive advantage.
That’s it! My foundation rule I apply every year in order to asses my needs going into the season. I’ve had years where I’ve needed to fill 100 points and other’s where I needed 20, But the key takeaway is that doing this exercise, you’re setting yourself up with a benchmark and that’s the first step in building a solid strategy.